IBM laid its analysis of the telecommunications market over the next five years and came to a conclusion that as IP-based high-speed mobile data ideals like LTE and WIMAX diffuse more broadly around the world, data carriers would get done with top providers and will enter into formal partnerships with them. Since the carriers are destined to lose the incoming gross revenue that they used to once generate via minute-based cellular plans, they will have to make up for the revenue by eliminating their data plans. Having just data plans or modules, the carriers have very less scope for competition in the global wide network. This will be an accommodation owing to the fact that most users have been qualified to enjoy unlimited access to some top services without any rentals, i.e. for free.
Investigating the telecom industry’s broader flanks, IBM churned out four probable settings or scenarios identifying how the industry will germinate over the next five years. These scenarios circumscribe:
Declining customer investment leads to stagnation of revenue, thereby leading to further integration within the industry.
Market fragmentation that will be caused to move faster by municipal as well as government efforts to impart broadband to underserved as well as unserved locations.
A setting where top providers merge to compete aggressively against other top providers.
A setting where the barriers or blocks boil down “as regulation, technology and competition drive open access.”
IBM suggests the latter 2 scenarios to be appealing to the carriers as they are likely to make it appropriate for the carriers to retain their strong market shares as well as be successful in adapting to the various challenges of top providers. The latter 2 scenarios are most likely appropriate and lucky for the carriers owing to the fact that they are capable of germinating into success stories. According to IBM, the carriers that are likely to be successful in these scenarios are those that have the ability to produce or create inter as well as intra-industry alliances that can act as catalysts in helping telcos compete with other internet companies or companies that have more open network access infrastructure to support third-party applications.
IBM also stresses on the kind of technologies that will be considered most important over the nest five years. It pulls out fiber-to-the-x in case of fixed broadband and Long Term Evolution for mobile broadband.
According to a survey commissioned by IBM in 2009 of various telecom companies, it was revealed that over 70% of operators found FTTx to be critical to their success over the next five years, while 67% has the same notions about LTE. In sharp contrast, about 8 % of operators found WIMAX to be critical to their success over the next five years and 54% disagreed to the same.